This EUISS commentary warns that Europe is walking into a brutal new era where critical raw materials are no longer “commodities” – they are weapons. The return of Trump-style protectionism, combined with China’s dominance over many supply chains, is turning minerals into tools of pressure, punishment and price warfare. Europe is dangerously exposed: it needs these materials for defence, batteries, renewables and industry, yet it lacks control over both supply and processing. The EU talks about resilience – but in a real showdown, it is the one most likely to be squeezed.