France is running out of room to escape its public-finance crisis. With the deficit reaching 5.4% of GDP and public debt approaching 120%, rising borrowing costs are turning years of fiscal complacency into an increasingly dangerous liability.

Europe is preparing a massive military spending drive, but more money does not automatically mean a stronger European defence industry. An IRIS assessment warns that the EU’s ReArm Europe plan could accelerate weapons purchases and expand production without solving the fragmentation that has weakened European military manufacturing for decades.

The EU wants its next long-term budget to do more than finance programmes – it also wants to defend democracy and the rule of law. But the Centre for European Reform raises a difficult question: can Brussels use financial pressure to confront governments that undermine democratic institutions without hurting the citizens it claims to protect?

Europe is running out of workers – and its next enlargement could provide part of the answer. CEPS warns that shrinking working-age populations and rapid ageing are putting growing pressure on European businesses, public services and economic growth.

France is bracing for another politically explosive energy shock, with petrol potentially reaching €3 a litre by the end of 2026. But Institut Montaigne argues that the familiar response – cut fuel taxes, subsidise everyone and pretend the state can erase the shock – would be expensive, badly targeted and strategically damaging.

Europe knows it needs a massive investment surge to compete, decarbonise, digitalise and defend itself – but its next budget is nowhere near large enough to deliver it. Bruegel estimates that meeting the EU’s major strategic objectives will require about €7 trillion of additional investment between 2028 and 2034.

Europe built its prosperity on openness. Now that openness is being turned into a weapon. ISPI argues that trade, investment, technology, energy and supply chains have become instruments of geopolitical pressure as the US and China compete and the rules-based trading system weakens.