Europe is spending more on defence, but RAND warns that money alone will not make the continent ready for the threats already hitting it. Russian sabotage, hybrid pressure and attacks on critical infrastructure are exposing weak spots far beyond the battlefield.

Europe has spent 15 years pretending it has a common defence procurement market. In reality, most governments ignored the rules, protected national champions and kept buying heavily from outside the EU, especially the United States.

France and Sweden are moving far beyond a one-off arms deal. Stockholm’s €4.3bn order for four French-built Luleå-class frigates is becoming the anchor for a much broader defence partnership covering missiles, air defence, nuclear deterrence and possibly future combat aircraft.

Britain’s migration row is moving into a more dangerous phase as far-right activists shift their attention from asylum hotels to ordinary residential homes. The report shows vigilantes identifying houses used to accommodate asylum seekers, circulating addresses online and turning local anger into direct intimidation and violence.

A fresh scramble for influence is under way across Eurasia, but no new superpower bloc is ready to replace the US-led order. China, Russia, India and Turkey all want more room to manoeuvre, yet each is boxed in by rivalries, economic limits and clashing strategic interests.

Germany’s old image as Europe’s stable, wealthy anchor is cracking fast. Friedrich Merz is struggling with dire approval ratings, infighting inside his CDU and an economy that has barely grown for six years. Meanwhile, the AfD is closing in on real political power as mainstream parties fail to offer voters a convincing route out.

Europe wants sovereign satellites, secure communications, stronger defence constellations and less dependence on foreign space giants. The RFI report shows the brutal catch: by 2030, the continent may not have enough rockets to launch what it says it needs.