Migration from Western Balkans to Germany: Implications and Recommendations

Migration has long shaped the demographic and economic realities of the Western Balkans, and Germany has become the principal migratory destination.

Since the 1990s, constant migration combined with negative population growth has led to a considerable decrease of the population in the Balkan countries, which causes concerns about the region’s future development. However, that migration has economic benefits for the countries of origin as well, particularly via remittances, trade, foreign direct investment and diaspora networks.

Many factors cause the people to leave, from an unsatisfactory return in the labor market to weaker social support and mistrust in the institutions. On the other hand, Germany has strong attraction factors including higher wages, a stronger social safety net, better education and more attractive career prospects among the German workforce.

The three decades’ constant population drain from the Balkans has undermined their human capital base – a critical factor behind any long-term economic growth.

In the recent years, protracted integration with the Economic Union and lack of employment opportunities have forced people to emigrate from the Western Balkans to Germany. Since 2015 it became the most frequent destination country for migrants from all West Balkan countries. In 2024, roughly every fourth migrant from the Western Balkans settled in Germany.

Those employees would mainly occupy low-skilled and semi-professional positions in construction, manufacturing, mining, and metallurgical industries. While being officially registered as temporary guest workers, most of those persons ultimately preferred not to return to their countries. With the passage of time, many of them managed to settle permanently and to eventually move their families.

By 2024, some 38 per cent of West Balkan nationals were employed in ‘assistant’ positions that usually require limited formal training. Only five per cent of Balkan guest workers, mainly from Bosnia-Herzegovina, were recognized as highly skilled workers. This is a minute number compared to the growing demand for good quality workforce.

As was already noted, the economic benefits for the Balkans are evident: remittances, trade, foreign direct investment and diaspora networks. The benefit for Germany is not so visible. The country does fill its numerous unskilled and low-skilled vacancies for which German candidates are few and far between. Yet migration erodes the country’s capital and increases its social burden (from child and unemployment benefits to a heavier strain on the education and health systems). The final outcome of the Balkan migration boom is an altered ethnic structure of German society. From a predominantly German country, thoroughly cultivated as such some 80 or 90 years ago, Germany is gradually becoming a nation of Albanians, Kosovars, Greeks and Turks. The Balkans are migrating towards the Rhine.