The analysis confronts an uncomfortable test for Berlin’s much-vaunted Zeitenwende as the prospect of another Trump presidency looms. Germany talks about strategic awakening, higher defence spending and greater responsibility for European security. The paper argues that a Trump return would expose how incomplete and fragile that shift still is. The slogans are there. The hard guarantees are not.

The analysis takes a hard look at the future of France’s far-right and delivers an unsettling conclusion – this is no longer a protest movement circling the edges. It is a disciplined, patient force positioning itself as a governing alternative while the traditional centre weakens. The piece argues that France’s political system is drifting toward a showdown it has spent years postponing.

The commentary confronts a question Brussels prefers to dodge – not whether Europe faces problems, but whether it is structurally capable of fixing them. It does not predict collapse or drama. Instead, it lays out a colder risk: slow failure through hesitation, fragmentation and loss of nerve. Europe, the piece argues, is drifting into a world where power moves faster than its institutions can cope.

The commentary paints a blunt picture of a German election drifting rightward as frustration hardens and patience with the political centre runs out. The shift is not sudden or accidental. It is the product of economic anxiety, migration pressure and years of muddled leadership. The piece argues that Germany is not lurching overnight, but sliding steadily into a harsher political mood with consequences for Europe.

This RAND assessment argues that globalisation is no longer about free trade and open flows, but about power, leverage and control – and the EU is unprepared. Supply chains are being weaponised, markets are politicised and states now trade security for efficiency. Europe, by contrast, still behaves as if rules alone can protect it. The result is a bloc exposed to shocks it cannot shape and pressures it struggles to resist.

Europe is already bracing for Donald Trump’s return – and the fear is palpable. This Heritage Foundation analysis says Trump is entering 2026 not as a side act, but as the dominant force shaping Europe’s choices, whether leaders like it or not. From defense spending to Ukraine, trade and China, Europe is reacting to Trump’s shadow rather than setting its own course.

Europe’s center-right is sliding back into a familiar and damaging habit – blaming America while tightening control at home. This Heritage Foundation commentary argues that conservative parties across Europe, once natural allies of Washington, are becoming more hostile, defensive and censorious. Under pressure from populists, culture wars and digital disruption, they are copying tactics they once criticised.